With only a quarter to go before 2010 ends, there have been several forecasts made on what the total US sales for the entire year will be. Although the last quarter will certainly be better than last year’s, it will still be significantly lower than what’s considered normal in the industry.
John K. Teahen Jr. of Automotive News estimates that sales will total 11.5 million for all of 2010. The seasonally adjusted annual rate was 12.2 million in September, but he thinks that 12 million for the year is just not achievable.
To reach 12 million, there would have to over 1.1 million sales a month in October, November and December. However, no month has attained that total.
Teahen pointed out that sales of 11.5 million would be 10.2% higher than 2009, but that this is nothing to be rejoicing about since last year had the worst sales since 1982.
He cited 2007 results as a better measuring rod, as this year was the last of nine straight years with sales of 16-million-plus. Back then, sales of 16 million was thought to be the norm for sales. The forecast this year of 11.5 million is about 29.0% lower than 2007 sales of 16.2 million.
The US auto industry has yet to get on the track to recovery. Deliveries in September 2010 totaling 959,049 units (a 29% increase over last year) were better than expected, but you have to remember that September 2009 was the first month after the end of the cash-for-clunkers incentive program.
September 2010 sales were 27% lower han the September 2007 tally. Making up for 55% of this total are the import-badged vehicles while the Detroit 3 had 45%. Even as each of the domestics posted a gain, it’s still not enough to catch up with the foreign makes. [via autonews - sub. required]