Analysts say that worldwide vehicle sales would likely reach its highest point in the next decade to he so-called “Peak Car,” and start to decline thereafter. Following a century of global growth, the auto industry may face a decline as early as next decade, with indications already present.
In megacities, pollution and heavy traffic are discouraging some to drive. In India, some people are leaving their vehicles at home and instead commute to work. In the US, younger Americans prefer public transport, bicycles and vehicle-sharing. Likewise, cars have become more durable. IHS Automotive expects annual sales to peak at 100 million within the next decades.
Peak Car runs counter to the grand expansion plans of global carmakers, which IHS says are readying to build more than 120 million vehicles by 2016 – which is around 50 percent higher than the sales mark of 82 million in 2013.
The dynamic also serves as a threat to business plans of parts producers, raw material suppliers and oil companies.
The reality is that the vehicle is becoming less significant in the world of personal mobility, especially as more and more people move to cities. While analysts are expecting less people to buy cars for their personal mobility in the decades, they do not forecast that vehicles would become an extinct commodity. [source: automotive news - sub. required]