Boston Consulting Group said the Russian car market could be the world's sixth-largest by 2020, up from tenth currently, selling 4 million cars annually. The consultancy said the Russian market is expected to grow at an 8 to 14 percent annual rate and reach pre-crisis yearly sales volumes of 3 million cars by 2013.
It added that Russia may overtake Germany by 2018 as the largest market for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Europe. Ewald Kreid, the head of the industrial good practice in Boston Consulting’s Moscow office, said the Russian auto industry has been a roller coaster for the past 18 months, but now it is back on track.
The consultancy added that Russian car sales will be boosted on the back of foreign partnerships, modernization and more local production. Halved in 2009, the Russian market is now bouncing back, with Russia's government expecting near 15 percent growth in its car market in 2011.
The Association of European Businesses (AEB) said sales of passenger and commercial cars rose 30 percent to 1.91 million in 2010 from 2009 levels, but still fell 34 percent short of the pre-crisis 2008 sales.
About 70 percent of the growth in 2010 was derived from the government's scrappage incentive program, which was started to help Russia's flagship carmaker AvtoVAZ cope with the crisis. The program helped AvtoVAZ's Lada brand sales 3.7 percent, and it is expected to continue fueling the sector's growth in the first half of 2011. [via autonews - sub. required]