VDA predicts Germany’s new-car market to grow by end of 2010

Article by Christian Andrei, on October 4, 2010

In September, new car registrations in Germany dropped at a significantly slower rate than in August – a trend that supports the VDA industry body’s belief that the German car market will return to growth towards the end of 2010. September’s new car registrations dropped by 17.8% to 259,748 vehicles.

Meanwhile, August’s new car registrations fell by 27% due to a high comparison with August 2009 that was distorted by the scrapping scheme. Last Monday, VDA President Matthias Wissmann said that the trend has changed with the coming in of new orders from domestic customers and that bookings increased by over 10%.

Wissman expects to see “rising registration figures in the domestic market” by the end of the year. According to Barclays Capital economist Julian Callow, the new-car demand is “encouraging” and may boost his estimate of a 0.3% rise in German private consumption in the third quarter over the second quarter.

In a note on Monday, Callow said that Germany is the only country among the Big Four (which also includes France, Italy and Spain) to have an increase in car sales in Q3 (2.88 million) compared to Q2 (2.78 million).

He pointed out that this 3.4% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q3 is the “first positive quarterly growth reading since Q2 2009." Even with a 5% increase in exports, the demand for cars in Germany remained very weak last month and caused production to fall 3% to 534,700 vehicles. [via autonews - sub. required]

Topics: germany, sales

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