Electric cars unlikely to become high-volume mainstream products by 2020
By Andrew C., 30 Aug, 2010. 0 Comments
By 2020, electric vehicles will still not have become a mainstream phenomenon, according to a study by Boston Consulting Group. Xavier Mosquet, leader of the firm's global automotive practice, points out that the main reason is said to be high battery costs.
Mosquet said automakers are unlikely to reach their long-term cost target of $250 per kilowatt-hour for lithium ion batteries. Currently, the price is $1,000 to $1,200 per kilowatt-hour. This study is well-timed for discussion as automakers prepare to promote EVs at the Detroit auto show next week. Continued after the jump!
EVs won’t be able to attract mainstream car buyers unless there is a sharp rise in gasoline prices, heavy government subsidies or an unexpected breakthrough in battery technology. Researchers say that battery technology won’t make a difference in the outcome.
Mosquet said that so far, no one has found the silver bullet. Unless there is a new technology or a new oil shock, a number of OEMs are going to invest money and not get the returns. At current prices, 20 kilowatt hour EV batteries cost about $20,000.
That price could fall to $8,000 by 2020 but even so, it won’t be low enough. Mosquet added that consumers want a three-year payback for the purchase cost of an EV compared with an internal combustion engine.
[via autonews - sub. required]
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